Friday, 7 May 2010

Westcountry results so far

Really am clocking off now. Back from 9am
03.45am Plymouth Moorview: Lab HOLD
Alison Seabeck has held this safer of the two Plymouth seats, though Matthew Groves slashed her majority from a healthy 7,740 to just 1,588. The Tories had made noises to suggest they could have taken this.

Alison Seabeck (Lab) 15,433 (37.16%)
Matthew Groves (C) 13,845 (33.34%)
Stuart Bonar (LD) 7,016 (16.90%)
Bill Wakeham (UKIP) 3,188 (7.68%)
Roy Cook (BNP) 1,438 (3.46%)
Wendy Miller (Green) 398 (0.96%)
David Marchesi (Soc Lab) 208 (0.50%)
Lab maj 1,588 (3.82%)
Notional 7.77% swing Lab to C
Turnout 41,526 (61.74%)

03.35 West Dorset
Despite the high hopes of Paddy Ashdown yesterday, Oliver Letwin clings on

Oliver Letwin (C) 27,287 (47.59%, +1.07%)
Sue Farrant (LD) 23,364 (40.75%, -1.15%)
Dr Steve Bick (Lab) 3,815 (6.65%, -1.09%)
Oliver Chisholm (UKIP) 2,196 (3.83%, +1.79%)
Susan Greene (Green) 675 (1.18%, -0.61%)
C maj 3,923 (6.84%)
1.11% swing LD to C
Turnout 57,337 (74.59%, -1.70%)

03.35am Tiverton & Honiton: Con HOLD
As expected, former Tory MEP Neil Parish has held the seat vacated by Angela Browning

Neil Parish (C) 27,614 (50.30%)
Jon Underwood (LD) 18,294 (33.33%)
Vernon Whitlock (Lab) 4,907 (8.94%)
Daryl Stanbury (UKIP) 3,277 (5.97%)
Cathy Connor (Green) 802 (1.46%)
C maj 9,320 (16.98%)
Notional 0.28% swing C to LD
Turnout 54,894 (71.47%)

03.25am Bridgwater & West Somerset: Con HOLD
No shock here.

Ian Liddell-Grainger (C) 24,675
Theo Butt Philip (LD) 15,426
Kathryn Pearce (Lab) 9,332
Peter Hollings (UKIP) 2,604
Donna Treanor (BNP) 1,282
Charles Graham (Green) 859
Bob Cudlipp (Ind) 315
Electorate: 76,560 — Turnout: 71.18%

03.25am Newton Abbot: Con GAIN
Confusion reigns. The BBC (who are winning the battle for my TV viewing) reported the Lib Dems held this seat. It has now been confirmed that Richard Younger-Ross is out, and Anne Marie Morris has take it - apologies.

Anne-Marie Morris (C) 20,774 (43.03%)
Richard Younger-Ross (LD) 20,251 (41.94%)
Patrick Canavan (Lab) 3,387 (7.01%)
Jackie Hooper (UKIP) 3,088 (6.40%)
Corinne Lindsey (Green) 701 (1.45%)
Keith Sharp (Ind) 82 (0.17%)
C maj 523 (1.08%)
Notional 5.79% swing LD to C
Turnout 48,283 (69.63%)

03.00am THOUGHTS
The Tories so far have not had a good night in the Westcountry. While big Labour majorities have fallen elsewhere and the Lib Dems seem to be struggling, here in the Westcountry the Tories have failed to take a seat yet. Exeter stayed Labour. So-called easy wins like Taunton, Somerton & Frome and Torbay have stayed Lib Dem and increased their majorities.
No results from Cornwall yet, but the Lib Dems in the region could yet stand between Cameron and a victory/majority. I could yet be wrong of course...
I am clocking off now, in search of sleep. I'll be on BBC Somerset at 9am and back in the office and online all day working up our full round-up of results for Saturday's WMN.
I bid you adieu...

02.57am Taunton Deane: Lib Dem HOLD
Jeremy Browne has held this seat, despite being high on the Tory target list. Mark Formosa fought North Cornwall in 2005 and failed there too. This is a coup for the Lib Dems, and even some Tories will privately welcome Jeremy's return to the Commons on a substantial 3,993 majority

Jeremy Browne (LD) 28,531 (49.06%)
Mark Formosa (C) 24,538 (42.20%)
Martin Jevon (Lab) 2,967 (5.10%)
Tony McIntyre (UKIP) 2,114 (3.64%)
LD maj 3,993 (6.87%)
Notional 1.78% swing C to LD
Turnout 58,150 (70.45%)

02.48am Totnes: Con HOLD
Dartmoor GP Sarah Wollaston has held the Totnes seat vacated by retiring MP Anthony Steen, almost doubling the Tory majority from 2,693 to 4,927.

Dr Sarah Wollaston (C) 21,940 (45.86%)
Julian Brazil (LD) 17,013 (35.56%)
Carole Whitty (Lab) 3,538 (7.40%)
Jeff Beer (UKIP) 2,890 (6.04%)
Lydia Somerville (Green) 1,181 (2.47%)
Mike Turner (BNP) 624 (1.30%)
Simon Drew (Ind) 390 (0.82%)
Dr Stephen Hopwood (Ind) 267 (0.56%)
C maj 4,927 (10.30%)
Notional 2.27% swing LD to C
Turnout 47,843 (70.42%)

02.37am Somerton and Frome: Lib Dem HOLD
Incredibly, David Heath has defied the odds and increased his slender 595 majority to a whopping 1,817. This should have easily fallen to Conservative Annunziata Rees-Mogg and was one of 12 seats in the Westcountry the Tories needed.

David Heath (LD) 28,793 (47.50%)
Annunziata Rees-Mogg (C) 26,976 (44.51%)
David Oakensen (Lab) 2,675 (4.41%)
Barry Harding (UKIP) 1,932 (3.19%)
Niall Warry (Leave EU) 236 (0.39%)
LD maj 1,817 (3.00%)
Notional 0.94% swing C to LD
Turnout 60,612 (74.33%)

02.20am East Devon: Con HOLD
No surprise this. Hugo Swire is returned as Tory MP, with a small swing to the Lib Dems

Hugo Swire (C) 25,662 (48.33%)
Paull Robathan (LD) 16,548 (31.17%)
Gareth Manson (Lab) 5,721 (10.78%)
Mike Amor (UKIP) 4,346 (8.19%)
Sharon Pavey (Green) 815 (1.54%)
C maj 9,114 (17.17%)
Notional 1.03% swing C to LD
Turnout 53,092 (72.62%)

02.10am Exeter: Labour HOLD
Not a huge surprise that Ben Bradshaw has hung on, his majority cut from 8,559 to 2,721, but even this week Tory strategists were hopeful of claiming a Cabinet scalp. Ed Balls has a similar majority in Yorkshire, but he must be looking safe too.

Ben Bradshaw (Lab) 19,942
Hannah Foster (C) 17,221
Graham Oakes (LD) 10,581
Keith Crawford (UKIP) 1,930
Chris Gale (Lib) 1,108
Paula Black (Green) 792
Robert Farmer (BNP) 673
Electorate: 77,157 — Turnout: 67.72%

01.45am Yeovil: Lib Dem HOLD
David Laws (LD) 31,843 (55.71%)
Kevin Davis (C) 18,807 (32.90%)
Lee Skevington (Lab) 2,991 (5.23%)
Nigel Pearson (UKIP) 2,357 (4.12%)
Robert Baehr (BNP) 1,162 (2.03%)
LD maj 13,036 (22.81%)
Notional 2.74% swing C to LD
Electorate 82,314; Turnout 57,160 (69.44%)

Plymouth University elections guru Prof Michael Thrasher says Torbay results indicates that the Tories “will struggle to take tough Lib Dem targets” in the Westcountry.

01.33am Exeter
Ben Bradshaw has just been on Sky. Asked if he could work with the Lib Dems, he said: "I have always said I would be very happy to work with anyone."

He also admitted: "It may be that the Conservatives win an outright majority. If the exit poll is right it’s not possible for us to continue to govern on our own."

01.12am Torbay: Lib Dem HOLD
This was on the Tory target list. Should have fallen to them, and even this week Tory sources were saying they were confident. It looks like Labour seats are falling to the Tories easily, while the Lib Dems are putting up a strong fight, which raises a question about how much the Westcountry map will change.

Adrian Sanders (LD) 23,126 (46.99%)
Marcus Wood (C) 19,048 (38.71%)
David Pedrick-Friend (Lab) 3,231 (6.57%)
Julien Parrott (UKIP) 2,628 (5.34%)
Ann Conway (BNP) 709 (1.44%)
Sam Moss (Green) 468 (0.95%)
LD maj 4,078 (8.29%)
Notional 1.14% swing C to LD
Turnout 49,210 (64.62%)

Labour spin doctor Alastair Campbell told the BBC: "Torbay was an interesting one. It's not going all the Tories' way."

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