Liberal Democrat 33
The latest YouGov poll provides fascinating reading, and gives both sides need for ammunition against the Liberal Democrats.
The Tories, who need to swipe 10 Lib-Dem seats in Cornwall, Devon and Somerset, are playing up the idea that a vote for the Lib-Dems would deprive them of an overall majority, giving us five more years of Brown. Vote yellow, get red, is the message.
Lib-Dem enthusiasm for Europe has also often been played down in the Westcountry, where UKIP traditionally do well. The Tories will be highlighting it more, along with Lib-Dem policies on an asylum seeker amnesty and scrapping tuition fees.
The Sun/YouGov poll puts the Lib-Dems in first place, for the first time since records began (an odd phrase, better suited to snow in August or donkeys winning the Grand National).
But the electoral maths means this Lib-Dem lead would actually make the Tories the biggest party, with 245 sears, Labour on 242 and Lib-Dem on 134.
As some in the Labour party are already saying, "vote yellow, get blue".
And the Lib-Dem party in Exeter said last night: "We hope Ben Bradshaw will agree that best thing for Exeter voters to do is vote Lib-Dem to stop a Conservative government."
Confused? You're not alone. Thousands, maybe millions of people - normal people, not political anoraks - who are justing starting to take an interest in this election, impressed with Clegg's debate performance, will have thought a vote for the Lib-Dems was just that, and no more.
Both Labour and Tories will want to muddy this, claiming the Lib-Dems are secretly in cahoots with the other side.
The dual temptations to demonise and lovebomb the third party will be strong. Both could actually help the Lib-Dems.
Labour launch their South West manifesto in Exeter today, knowing their best hope of winning the election is the Lib-Dems performing strongly in the region.
But there are two and a half weeks of campaigning left to go - the last fornight has proven anything could yet happen.